A good analogy would be that when there are sheepdogs guarding the flock, there are no wolf attacks on the flock. This condition exists precisely because the sheepdog acts as a deterrent to the predatory acts of the wolf by providing a parity in force. What would be the fate of the sheep if the dogs where not present? If I were a sheep, I would want a gun. When making predictions using computer models, we encounter two sources of…